What has Happened:

• Venezuela has begun to move additional military forces to the border with Guyana including light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats, and armored personnel carriers.
• This is seen by many to be a significant escalation in the situation that began in early December after Venezuela voted to annex the territory of its oil-rich neighbor (see SITREP).
• Following the initial tensions, the two countries reached a written agreement in mid-December that included a pledge to settle the dispute without the use of force.
• However, Venezuela has been increasing its defenses near the border in response to the U.S. military exercises with Guyana and the U.K.’s deployment of a warship off Guyana in late December.
• In January, Venezuela deployed three Iranian-made Peykaap III anti-ship guided-missile patrol boats in the waters near the location where major international oil companies have been operating and producing almost 650,000 barrels of oil per day.
• However, the general consensus is that Venezuela does not intend to actually invade or annex Guyana, but rather Maduro will try to negotiate a deal that will be beneficial to Venezuela, which has seen its economy contract by over 70% since he took office.
• Maduro also has an election coming up this year in Venezuela, and he is likely trying to build internal support for his campaign.

Why it Matters:

“I expect to see continued saber rattling by Maduro. This is all political posturing for the presidential election in 2024, gamesmanship, and an attempt to extort oil companies to keep the region stable. It would be very difficult for Venezuela’s military to conduct sustained combat operations in the Essequibo region and a failed military operation will break the Venezuelan military. This year, I expect (at most) a possible ‘lone wolf’ or small battalion-size attack, but not a state sponsored attack in the Essequibo region. Brazil is sending more forces to protect their sovereignty, but no country in the region is going to get involved as they do not want to be blamed by Maduro as the reason for the country failing. I think that something will happen along the border at some point, but it will get resolved without a regional conflict because a conflict will be the end of the Maduro regime. Much like we see with North Korea, there is lots of posturing going on in an attempt to receive more aid or benefits to prop up the regime.” – General K.K. Chinn

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