Macro Strategy Insights

War Schmwar

Markets have been almost totally dismissive of the conflict in Iran. Frankly, the number of countries, including oil-rich nations, that had been firing at each other seemed quite high, yet most markets shrugged it off. While the Strait remained closed, or blockaded, or blocked, the market remained in Open Sesame mode this week. To some extent this fits with what we discussed on Thursday in The Fog of War and Markets. With our “best” cases (not necessarily our base case) still in play, that makes some sense, but it seems to be edging into the “exuberance” stage. On Friday morning, ... War Schmwar

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