Macro Strategy Insights

Too Narrowly Focused?

The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to deteriorate (worst levels in a year). Bond yields have declined (the 10-year Treasury got to 4.31% on Thursday, basically the bottom of our 4.3% to 4.5% range, and crept higher the rest of the week). Bonds in part moved on economic data (weak), inflation (high, but “explainable”), and Powell (who couldn’t resist being dovish) effectively dismissing the higher than anticipated PPI (explainable as it was). I’d argue that bond yields went lower partly due to economic data and partly due to Powell. Stocks did well again this week (1% to 2% depending on ... Too Narrowly Focused?

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