Macro Strategy Insights

The Path to a September Rate Cut (despite AI inflation)

A lot has changed in the past 24 hours. After Thursday’s CNBC interview, it seemed obvious (to me) that I needed to write about how there is a real path to a Fed Rate Cut in September. Not only has the market priced in a 75% chance of a hike in September, and 1.25 hikes by the December meeting, most have also taken any chance of a cut off the table. I think that is missing the path that I believe Warsh is trying to create. We argued last weekend, The Fed and Rates, that Warsh had curtailed the tail ... The Path to a September Rate Cut (despite AI inflation)

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