Macro Strategy Insights

How Full is the Consumer Consumption Glass?

We discussed/highlighted/emphasized (take your pick) the possibility that the economy was poised for a bounce, or “trampoline” effect in last weekend’s Escalation and Expansion. My base case has been for a slowdown in the economy and a slowing job market with different regions and industries being impacted in their own way. The combination of the jobs report on Friday and the strength of the Citi Economic Surprise Index are two factors driving this reassessment. We fought through some technical difficulties yesterday morning and discussed this theme, as well as banks, commercial real estate, and commodities on Bloomberg TV (28:35 mark). ... How Full is the Consumer Consumption Glass?

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