Macro Strategy Insights

Ceasefire?

The U.S., via Pakistan (and apparently in tandem with negotiations being carried out by Witkoff and Kushner), has delivered a 15-point agreement for a ceasefire. Markets responded with oil down (Brent futures, at 5:30 am, are back down below $100, from a high of $105 on Tuesday). Stock futures and Treasuries are rebounding as well (even for the 2-year, after the drubbing it took after yesterday’s auction, which was noticeable for an absence of “direct” bids). Many of the Polymarket Strait of Hormuz “prediction” markets have barely moved in response to the ceasefire proposal announcement, fwiw. What to do? We ... Ceasefire?

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