What has Happened:

• Earlier today, a U.S. intelligence official said that Russian missiles struck a village in Poland (a NATO member) near the border with Ukraine, killing two people.
• These strikes were likely errant missiles that were part of a broader bombardment that hit Ukrainian energy facilities across the country causing widespread blackouts, including in neighboring Moldova.
• Ukraine’s energy minister said that today’s attack was “the most massive” bombardment of power facilities since the war began in February and missiles struck power generation and transmission systems.
• The strikes are on the heels of the Russian withdrawal from Kherson.
• The loss of Kherson is major blow to President Putin, who proclaimed Kherson as “part of Russia forever” after annexing the region last month.
• Kherson is the third major city that Russia has lost during the 9-month-old war, following the withdrawals from Kyiv last spring and from Kharkiv in September.
• Holding Kherson was a significant part of Russia’s effort to control the southern coastline along the Black Sea.

Why it Matters:

“As this information becomes clearer, it is important to remember that NATO is a consensus organization. For Article 5 to be invoked, I believe that all countries would have to agree. It is unclear that would occur in the event of an errant missile. I am not sure what the U.S. response would be. One possibility is giving longer-range munitions to Ukraine to reach deeper into Russia. This keeps the response between the current belligerents.” – General Frank Kearney

“If this was an accident, it will likely NOT trigger Article 5. That said, it might “shake” NATO/U.S. enough to cause them to accelerate approval of any pending requests by Ukraine for military equipment and other assistance.” – Admiral A.B. Cruz III

“Given the current understanding of this strike, I do not think this will invoke Article 5. Now is a time for patience not aggression.” – General Mastin Robeson

“It sounds like this will not trigger Article 5, but it is also clear that markets were not prepared for any potential escalation. This incident is separate from aggressive attacks on Ukraine, leaving many without power, including a pipeline used to transport Russian crude to Hungary. This is a time to be cautious on risk as the potential for increased rhetoric is high (especially as the GIG points out above.) At the very least, this is an excuse to send even better equipment to Ukraine.” – Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy