Geopolitical Insights

Academy SITREP – Update on War Between Israel and Hamas

October 9, 2023
What has Happened:
  • Israel has seized control of the communities around Gaza that were at the center of the horrific attacks by Hamas over the past 48 hours.
  • Israel’s Ministry of Defense has ordered a ”complete siege” of Gaza cutting off electricity, food, fuel, and water to the region and has called up 300,000 reservists.
  • Israel flew in munitions from the U.S. over the weekend, including GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs and the expectation is that Israel will ask for small arms, ammunition, tank rounds, and Tamir interceptors for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
  • The U.S. is also sending the USS Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean to show solidarity with Israel and to discourage other parties from getting involved/supporting Hamas in this conflict, i.e., Iran and Hezbollah.
  • Hezbollah exchanged artillery and rocket fire on Sunday with Israeli forces raising concern of an escalation of the violence, but Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah BouHabib said that his government has been assured by Hezbollah that it will not join the fighting unless Israel “harasses” Lebanon.
  • While unconfirmed by U.S. intelligence (and denied by Iran), Iranian security officials reportedly helped plan Hamas’s attack and gave the “green light” for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that creating a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace in Israel and could see Russia as a peacemaker (it has a relationship with all the parties involved).
  • Nine Americans and over 700 Israelis have been killed and over 100 have been kidnapped by Hamas.
Why it Matters:

“Iran is the winner in all of this if we force a ceasefire too soon. Israel needs to eradicate the cells that perpetrated this attack if there is any hope of stability and the cessation of hostilities going forward. I think that Israel will try to prevent a wider fight (Syria/Lebanon). As such, I am not sure that I see Israel reversing the 2005 decision on Gaza, but if this is done correctly the outcome could be a reduction of Iranian influence in the region and stronger Gulf nation ties with Israel. If nothing else it exposes Iran’s true colors.” General Mastin Robeson  

“It is useful to see that this is a political act as much as (or more than) a military act. Potential effects might be to rekindle Palestinian support in Saudi Arabia, disrupting the very strategic Abraham Accords.  Similarly, the abject failure of Palestinian leadership has created frustration that some elements also want to call attention to. Once this outbreak of violence is contained, it might inspire Israeli thinking about the tenuous “thin red line” that guards the fence line in Gaza, and the vulnerabilities in the West Bank.” General Michael Groen