What has Happened:

• A U.S.-led coalition launched more than a dozen strikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen late today.
• Targets in the strike included drone and missile launch sites used by the Houthis as well as radar installations.
• On Tuesday, the Houthis defied an ultimatum to halt their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and fired 21 missiles and drones (that were shot down by the U.S. Navy and a U.K. warship).
• In anticipation of a U.S. retaliatory response, Houthi forces moved some weapons and equipment into bunkers in the densely populated city of Sana’a.
• In addition, according to reports, an Iranian spy vessel that was assisting the Houthi attacks on shipping left the Red Sea early Thursday for Bandar Abbas.

Why it Matters:

“The U.S. and British strikes against Houthi military capabilities responsible for targeting commercial and naval ships in the Red Sea was anticipated based on warnings from the U.S. earlier in the week. The Houthis temporarily paused their attacks but began them again yesterday crossing a line set by the U.S. and the U.K. Yesterday’s unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution demanding that the Houthis cease their attacks added credibility to the U.S. and British response. China and Russia’s abstention in the UN vote shows the vast geopolitical division between them and the U.S./its allies. The U.S. is trying to “thread the needle” in not widening the situation into a regional war. The reported dozen strikes by the U.S. and the British would follow that approach even though this is an escalation. The Houthis have threatened to continue the attacks “for years” putting commercial shipping at risk. The expectation is that this will not end soon, due to the Houthi’s intent to draw the U.S. into responding.” – General Robert Walsh

“The attack against Houthi capabilities is simply the first step in a longer-horizon engagement not just to protect shipping through the Red Sea, but the broader Middle East. The nature of the Houthis’ reaction will determine what counteraction the U.S. and its coalition partners will take. The Houthis are a very modern, very capable terrorist organization that enjoys Iranian sponsorship. There is a lot of punishment that they can withstand before breaking. This is an escalation of the U.S. role in their posture vis-a-vis Iran, not an expansion. Typically, and not surprisingly, Tehran hopes to exhaust Washington’s will while it sacrifices the lives of its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.” – General Spider Marks

“To date, the U.S. retaliatory attacks against the Iranian backed proxies have been ineffective in deterring additional aggressive attacks by those same Iranian backed proxies. Until the specifics are known of what the most recent round of strikes targeted, we can’t ascertain what might be the next reaction. What can be said is that until there is a realization by the Biden administration that the origins of the aggression must be directly affected in order to deter future Iranian backed aggression, that aggression will continue.” – General David Deptula

“U.S. strikes against the Houthis should come as no surprise and are frankly overdue. No doubt there is an extensive target deck for execution that has been under consideration for some time as the administration awaited Houthi reactions to increased U.S./coalition presence in the region. Given that the increased U.S. presence didn’t deter the Houthis, this likely represents the first strike (and a proportional strike) to gauge a Houthi response before a second engagement, but this would be subject to a battle damage assessment. I would assess with high confidence that the targets were selected for a late night strike (against weapons systems and infrastructure) with the intent of not just reducing their weapons stores but minimizing casualties (striking when human traffic would be minimum). Starting with Iran, I would expect a strong rhetoric response but assess a very low probability that Iran would get directly involved in any kinetic actions in the vicinity of the Bab-el Mandeb. Iran may increase their harassing activity in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman – which they have done before and illustrative of that is the illegal boarding of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman today. The Iranian Navy is inherently aggressive in both Gulf regions and they can leverage that in their narrative against the U.S. I don’t assess that this strike will completely deter the Houthis from future strikes. I would expect to see more strikes but unknown at this time if the Houthis will scale back. I would assess that the U.S. briefed KSA and UAE of the pending strikes given previous Houthi strikes against their nations. Unknown at this time is what increased support CENTCOM is providing to KSA to prevent Houthi strikes against their oil infrastructure and whether the Houthis would derail the current peace talks with KSA based on the U.S. strikes. While there is still some level of maritime traffic coming through the Suez and through the Bab-el Mandeb, this will likely cause a short-term reduction in traffic as the international maritime community awaits a Houthi reaction and (potentially) further U.S. strikes. Finally, these actions are independent of what is happening Iraq, Syria, and Gaza though it may inspire strikes by Iranian proxies against U.S. forces.” – General Robert Ashley