What has Happened:

• Earlier today, U.S. Central Command reported that three U.S. service members were killed, and twenty-five personnel were injured, in a drone attack (attributed to Iran-backed militia) on a base in northeast Jordan.
• This attack marks the first time that U.S. military personnel have been killed by hostile fire since the war between Israel and Hamas began on October 7^th.
• There have been over 150 attacks by Iran-backed militias (in Syria and Iraq) against U.S. troops since last October and U.S. forces have struck back several times, most recently last week, when three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah were hit.
• This attack comes at a time when Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah forces continue to exchange fire across the Lebanese border.
• In addition, Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired a missile (which was successfully intercepted) at the USS Carney, a U.S. destroyer, in the Gulf of Aden on Friday (in retaliation, U.S. forces struck a Houthi anti-ship missile position on Saturday).

Why it Matters:

“Up front and key is attribution when determining strike options. The U.S. will be looking for attribution via intelligence reporting to figure out who was behind the strike and more importantly who may have directed the strike. Attribution may not ever be known but it’s most likely to surface shortly after the strike. As we all know, while proxies are funded and resourced by Iran, Iran is not necessarily involved in the direct operational tasking. Attribution figures into the nature of the U.S. response and how far up the chain this goes in Iran will factor (militarily and politically) into our response/strike options. The Jordanians are very close partners in the region on a number of fronts (diplomatically and militarily) and I would expect that they will be a key partner in understanding what took place and could perhaps be a partner in the response. Israel as well may play into our understanding of what took place. All of this factors into the escalation calculus of the U.S. From what we’ve seen demonstrated by the White House, they will most likely respond in Syria or Iraq in a proportional way but attribution with concrete intelligence will likely set the pace for future actions as it relates to strikes against Iranian proxies and Iran itself.” – General Robert Ashley

“Attribution is always critical in response planning and timing. My view is that U.S. KIAs were unfortunately inevitable. Our locations and patterns of activity at land-based positions are and have been known. I don’t know details about the attack or defenses in place that were penetrated, but we have not done enough to harden anti-drone defense. We have been watching drone warfare increase in capability and lethality over the past few years with less than acceptable results. We have fought in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) against Iranian proxies for decades without an escalation of Iranian-U.S. sustained fighting. I think that we will continue to see U.S. and allies attacking these proxies. Responding needs to be complemented by a better effort at deploying more effective anti-drone capabilities in support of our known fixed locations in the AOR.” – General Frank Kearney

“The attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan comes after months of over 150 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The Biden administration and the U.S. Central Command must be ready with intelligence and a plan on how to retaliate. Iran is widening the conflict across the region through attacks by its proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. A clear line has now been crossed and the U.S. must escalate its response even with the risk that the attacks may increase. The Biden administration has been measured in their previous responses. This attack changes the calculus and was anticipated.  American partners in the region and the American public will be watching closely for the administration’s response. U.S. intelligence has had plenty of time to learn who is leading the campaign against U.S. forces and the relationships between Iran and its proxies in Syria and Iraq. The administration must now act with strength, or the attacks will continue.” – General Robert Walsh

“The small garrison near Tower 22 (on the Jordanian border with Syria) likely has played an enabling role for counter-ISIS efforts and counter-Iranian efforts for a long time. It sits near key routes between Iran and coastal Lebanon. I expect that this strike was opportunistic, likely by Iranian proxies, as retaliation for strikes on Hezbollah elements crossing through the area or it potentially came from elements of a Jordanian population that emphatically support the Gazan cause against Israel. The large number of casualties is surprising and is consistent with larger Iranian drones. In this case, it seems the greatest lessons may require a complete reassessment of the ability of U.S. forces to conduct counter-drone operations. The lessons from Ukraine are highly visible, and the Ukrainians have equipped themselves with world-leading counter-drone capabilities. If the drones can be attributed to Iran (maybe the same make as they are delivering to Russia), this provides justification to hold Iran accountable.

In other news, the Iranian-proxy Houthi forces are continuing to disproportionately target U.S. and other Western shipping registered in the Red Sea. This past week, two ships from Maersk’s U.S. subsidiary carrying supplies for U.S. forces in the region observed rocket fire and explosions nearby. Maersk has now suspended further transits of the Suez canal. The additional 6,200 nautical mile diversion adds about $1M in costs for every ship that takes the detour.

Factors in the wake of the Israel/Gaza/UNICJ news that may have been overlooked include Israel’s decision to build a larger buffer on the Gaza side of the fence. As the recent attacks have shown, no buffer can substitute for a vigilant and responsive force keeping watch. In addition, this week we saw Israeli protestors disrupting Gaza relief shipments going through the Kerem Shalom crossing (demanding turnover of hostages before aid is shipped). Most of the trucks impacted were rerouted to the Rafah crossing, but the escalation on the Israeli side of the border is sure to create additional international protest.” – General Michael Groen