What has Happened:

• Earlier today, multiple gunmen opened fire at a concert hall just outside Moscow killing at least 40 people and wounding over 100.
• The incident took place about two weeks after the U.S. Embassy in Moscow warned that an attack (from ISIS-K) could be imminent, and it strongly advised American citizens to avoid large gatherings.
• On March 19th, President Putin called the warning “obvious blackmail” and said that it had been made with “the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.”
• The shooting is eerily reminiscent of the kinds of terrorist attacks in Russia conducted by Chechen insurgents in the early 2000s, and clearly undermines the “image of invincibility” that Putin tried to project in the run-up to the recent presidential election.
• The attack came the same day that Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack against Ukraine’s energy grid, which was the largest attack of this kind since the start of the war.
• In recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up its strikes against Russian oil refineries, calling them “legitimate targets” even after being urged by the U.S. to stop.
• However, John Kirby reported from the White House that there was “no indication at this time that Ukraine, or Ukrainians, were involved in the shooting.”

Why it Matters:

“From an Intelligence Community (IC) perspective, we always caution any snap judgments until this is sorted out so I would not jump to any conclusions regarding Ukraine given the escalation in attacks earlier this week or an indigenous group looking to embarrass Putin on the heels of the election. The IC will be increasing its collection looking for reflections of who conducted the attack. Depending on what they learn, recommendations will go from the DNI to the National Security Council on what we should share publicly if it supports our national interests. I would expect the same type of collection from the Russians. However, depending on who is behind the attacks, there may be a spin from the Kremlin and Putin but that is yet to be seen. I would not rule out any element at this point until we know more and that will factor into the Kremlin’s response. It doesn’t matter what the truth is, Putin will leverage the narrative to his design. If it was Ukraine, he could focus not on the lack of defense of Moscow, but the need to increase Russian efforts to subdue the Ukrainian resistance.” – General Robert Ashley

“Unclear who the attackers are albeit ISIS has taken credit for the killings. There is a collection of evidence, obviously not substantiated, that Putin’s historical savagery in Chechnya is the motivation for the attack. There’s a lot going on here and it’s early but it’s safe to say that the North Caucasus region remains a legitimate challenge for Putin. Like all episodic challenges to Putin, this is the first and most likely only domino that will fall. There is no evidence that Putin is at risk or that Ukraine is involved. Alternatively, there is historical evidence that Putin will survive and eliminate any threat to his power.” – General Spider Marks

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