What has Happened:

• After the U.S. picked up indications that Iran was preparing to fire ballistic missiles at Israel this morning, Iran moved forward with the attack this afternoon by launching over a hundred ballistic missiles at targets in Israel (though initially there were no known reports of major injuries or fatalities).
• This action from Iran comes on the heels of Israel commencing a “limited” ground operation into southern Lebanon and the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, and a senior IRGC General, Abbas Nilforoushan, last Friday in Beirut.
• While there were concerns regarding the potential for a second Iranian attack following the killing of the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31^st, Iran initially hesitated likely because of the risk of escalation with Israel and the U.S.
• However, more pressure had been put on Iran by its network of proxies to get more involved and to strike Israel directly, especially following the killing of Nasrallah and the launching of the Israeli ground operation into Lebanon.
• In April of this year, Iran fired over 300 missiles/drones at Israel, but 99% of these munitions were intercepted by Israel and its partner nations, led by the U.S.
• In both instances the U.S. utilized multiple assets in the region capable of intercepting ballistic missiles including guided missile destroyers, in addition to the Israeli Arrow missile defense system and support from Jordan.
• The U.S. has warned of ”severe consequences” for Iran, and Israel will respond to this attack, further escalating the situation and raising the risk of a broader regional war.

Why it Matters:

“Given the poor performance this time around and the last time the Iranians tried this, I wonder if they are just trying to goad the Israelis into some action that will bring more condemnation against Israel. Iran’s strategy here is likely not to just fire missiles. It includes a multi-layer plan behind their back as well.” – General Michael Groen

“Iran had to do something or look weak and non-supportive of their main proxy. Scope and scale here indicated Iranian intent. Given the air defense posture, much if not all of what they did was defeated, but the gesture mattered as a message.” – General Frank Kearney

“To the intent point, it may have made more sense if they went after Israeli forces in northern Israel near the Lebanese border or Tel Aviv proper. This strike will likely see an immediate response with Netanyahu not entertaining any restraint pleas from the U.S.” – General Robert Ashley

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