What has Happened:

• Earlier today, a missile attack by Houthi rebels in the Gulf of Aden killed two crew members, injured six others, and forced the survivors to abandon ship.
• This attack on the Liberian-owned, Barbados-flagged bulk carrier named True Confidence is the first fatal attack since the Houthis began their assault on commercial shipping in the region last fall.
• As we reported in our most recent ATW, the Houthis have been increasing their attacks in the Red Sea against commercial shipping and coalition forces in the region.
• The U.S. and coalition forces continue to conduct air strikes against targets in Yemen including anti-ship missiles that are ready to launch, weapons storage facilities, one-way attack drones, air defense systems, radars, and helicopters.
• The Houthis recently sank the Rubymar (a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier) in the Red Sea and claim that the attacks will continue until the war in Gaza ends.

Why it Matters:

“It was unfortunately inevitable that there would be mariners killed or wounded. Escalation really revolves around targeting more than retaliation. As targets emerge, I expect a higher willingness to engage more forcefully. As long as a missile and drone supply chain exists from Iran to the Houthis, strikes on storage and launch sites will have limited impact. The administration’s challenge is difficult. Too many strikes against the Houthis with no effect would be a problem and a mass attack may be perceived as overkill given the Gaza situation. This is really a no-win situation in an election year. If a ceasefire occurs, it will be interesting to see if Houthi and Hezbollah strikes cease. If they don’t, this will become a longer-term proxy fight. Remember the ultimate Iranian goal is the removal of the U.S. from the region.” – General Frank Kearney

“Any loss of life is tragic in these circumstances, but this event doesn’t rise to the level of what we saw at Tower 22. I would assess that the collective nations are continuing to evaluate the types of threats to determine how well they are postured not only to strike, but to also defend the various ships transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb. While the campaign is maturing, it is still a campaign against the Houthis. Deterrence has obviously not been established. This is not a watershed event that substantially changes the plans of the U.S./allied nations. Rather, they will continue to look at what is needed to defend the shipping lanes and deplete the Houthi arsenal. Regarding Ramadan and the potential for a ceasefire, it depends on the Israeli government. As more becomes public about the nature of the brutal Hamas attacks and assaults against the hostages, the IDF is unlikely to slow the campaign. Something has to give on the Palestinian side as well and I see no compromise in either camp.” – General Robert Ashley

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