Macro Strategy Insights

What A Strange Jobs Report

Last month was revised down from an awful -92k to an abysmal -133k. Two-month revisions were -69k (bad even by revision standards). Yet, we created 178k jobs in March! Wait, it gets “better” (or weirder). Hourly earnings dropped. Weekly hours dropped. Neither of those seem consistent with the strength in the headline number. From the JOLTS data (which is 2 months old, so doesn’t capture “this month’s strength”) we had two very weak readings on two datasets that I trust more on jobs than most others – the QUIT and HIRE rates. I view “QUIT” as “crowd sourced.” People in ... What A Strange Jobs Report

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