Macro Strategy Insights

Trade War? Policy Pivot?

For anyone who has been reading the T-Report for the past few months, you know that we have become increasingly concerned about the administration’s tariff policy and its impact on markets and the economy. As recently as Thursday on Bloomberg TV, I was bearish on the economy and thought that we had evolved from a Trade War to an Economic War with China. That fits the D.I.M.E. framework for levers of power (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic). On Wednesday (it seems like so much longer ago), after the “reciprocal” tariffs went into place (which weren’t actually reciprocal), the administration backed ... Trade War? Policy Pivot?

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