Macro Strategy Insights

NFP Instant Reaction – Any Silver Lining?

The headline Establishment Survey was 73k, which looks not so great at first blush, but unfortunately it’s one of the better numbers in the entire report. Only 1 economist surveyed by Bloomberg had a number lower than the actual. As bearish on jobs as some of the rest of this analysis may sound, I suspect that we overstated job growth in the prior months and are entering the time of year when we underestimate it, but we are all stuck living with the official data. Not that I’m bitter, but last month’s headline number was revised down from 147k to ... NFP Instant Reaction – Any Silver Lining?

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