Let’s cut right to the chase. If you haven’t heard of the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator before now, you will certainly hear about it today and this weekend. It argues (and it has a good historical track record) that when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate moves 0.5% higher than the lowest 3-month average in the past 12 months – we are headed for a recession. The current 3-month average is 4.13%. Last August it was 3.63% – a move of 0.5% (though to be honest, I’m not sure that counts, since it includes June data which was ... A Weak Report with Few Redeeming Qualities