Macro Strategy Insights

A Slightly Dovish Fed, That Was Clearly Against Consensus

The Fed decreased their growth forecast for 2025, increased unemployment rate expectations, and increased inflation. They changed the language and the dots enough that a market, which was possibly looking for a hawkish Fed, felt the need to buy stocks and bonds. The statement and presentation struck me as more or less neutral to slightly dovish. Powell did seem slightly more dismissive on questions regarding inflation risks and seemed to give more credence to questioning the economy. But even there, he is certainly NOT in the recession camp and their end of 2024 unemployment rate of 4.4% is probably still ... A Slightly Dovish Fed, That Was Clearly Against Consensus

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