What has Happened:

• Earlier this month, the U.S. military carried out a strike against a drug-carrying boat from Venezuela, just days after the Pentagon deployed warships to the Caribbean to stop the flow of drugs into the United States.
• President Trump said that the targets had been “positively identified” as Tren de Aragua members and the strike took place in international waters, with no U.S. forces hurt.
• In addition, yesterday, it was reported that the United States had carried out a strike on a second Venezuelan boat in international waters and killed three alleged terrorists that President Trump claimed were transporting drugs.
• The Trump administration named the Tren de Aragua gang as a foreign terrorist organization in February, the first Venezuelan criminal organization to be so designated.
• The strikes on the vessels come amid the Trump administration’s increasingly confrontational posture toward the Venezuelan regime.
• The U.S. continues a massive buildup of forces around Venezuela and over the weekend, five F-35 fighter jets arrived in Puerto Rico adding to the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps assets already in the region.

Why it Matters:

“It remains to be seen whether or not this indicates a major strategic shift in U.S. policy. I do believe that the Trump administration views Homeland Defense under a much broader umbrella than past administrations. The current administration seems to be much more focused on ‘defending the homeland’ from unchecked mass migration/immigration, threats to the rule of law/domestic law-enforcement, and the narcotics trade. They are blurring lines that have heretofore been rather clear with regards to military action. I believe the administration will continue to leverage capabilities like those at Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF-S) to assist in more aggressive targeting of the perceived threat. We should watch carefully for the response from South American and Central American countries to these kinetic actions. The pending discourse on legal authorities will also add to the confusion.” – General John Evans

“In the last 40 years of U.S. efforts, the almost-standard operating procedure is for the crews to surrender when the first shots are fired across the bow, or in extremis when a Coast Guard sniper takes out the motor from a helicopter. Sometimes the crew dumps the cargo. The crew are always expendable, low-level employees of the traffickers, who get some jail time. The Joint Interagency Task Force (JIATF) would then collect the cargo as evidence from the vessel, or from the ocean if possible. The JIATF also used to keep a statistical model showing how much cocaine the cartels expected to lose, and still maintain prices in the U.S. markets. To change the equation, the U.S. and its partners would need to intercept more multi-ton shipments closer to the point of origin. To do that requires more maritime assets, more helicopters, and probably a change from law enforcement methods to interdiction methods where any suspicious vessel gets stopped and searched beyond the 12-mile limit. The other methods require the Colombians to return to aerial spraying and both the Colombians and Ecuadorians to run riverine and jungle operations along their border against known areas of interest where cocaine is processed and packaged for shipment.” – General Rick Waddell

“Changing the risk calculation for narco-trafficking is an important part of the solution, but it must be accompanied by a ‘whole of society’ approach that also reduces demand. Law enforcement seizures have long been factored in as a cost of doing business. Death in a military action has not. Some may be deterred, but as long as there is a profit to be made, drugs will continue to flow. According to a U.S. Government report published last year, in 2023, an estimated 54.2 million Americans aged 12 or older needed substance use disorder treatment, but only 12.8 million people with a substance use disorder in the past year received treatment.” – Linda Weissgold, Former CIA Deputy Director for Analysis

“With the second strike, the Trump administration is demonstrating intent to deepen the military’s involvement in combating drug trafficking. Defending the homeland is a top priority. These strikes are focused on deterring the movement of drugs by sea and pressuring Venezuela and Mexico to take more aggressive actions against the cartels. The administration will continue to lean hard on Venezuela in particular by disrupting the flow of income from drug trafficking. If the administration does not get the response it is looking for, I would not be surprised to see strikes in Venezuela against cartel locations.” – Admiral Kelly Aeschbach

DISCLAIMER