What has Happened:

• Last Friday, it was announced that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold a summit in Alaska on August 15th to discuss the path forward to ending the war in Ukraine.
• Trump announced the meeting on the final day of the 10-day timeline he laid out for Putin to agree to a ceasefire or else face more U.S. sanctions.
• As of now, Ukrainian President Zelensky is not scheduled to participate in Friday’s summit, though Trump plans to call Zelensky (along with other European leaders) immediately after the meeting to brief them on the session with Putin.
• The meeting comes after U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held “highly productive” talks with Putin in Moscow last week.
• At that meeting, Putin presented the Trump administration with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine that included major territorial concessions by Kyiv — and a push for global recognition of its claims — in exchange for a halt in the fighting.
• Ukraine and the EU have meanwhile pushed back on peace proposals that they view as ceding too much territory to Putin (such as the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) in exchange for a ceasefire.

Why it Matters:

“The meeting in Alaska is an important opportunity to get Putin to the negotiating table. It occurs after President Trump reversed his position to now pressure Russia with secondary sanctions and increased weapons transfers to Ukraine. The U.S. threat of secondary sanctions caused India to call Russia and explain the risk to both countries. Russia’s allies know that Trump is positioned to increase the pain on them. We should not expect a lot to come from this initial meeting. Putin will press for his previous maximalist demands. He wants to see Ukraine weakened to enable future Russian attacks while pulling Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence. Expect him to demand the land that the Russian military controls unless there is land swapping. Putin’s play will be to limit U.S. and NATO influence in Ukraine. Ukraine will press to leave open the question of joining NATO along with security assurances if Russia is to gain control of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. This will not be the worst deal for Ukraine; it will remain a sovereign state against Russia’s objectives, determining Putin’s ultimate failure. Ukraine’s security lies with the opportunity for future reconstruction by the U.S. and the EU. The Europeans need to be involved in future negotiations along with President Zelensky. This first meeting should therefore focus on a ceasefire. Putin is negotiating with Trump because Trump has leverage, and is using it while he increases relations with Zelensky.” – General Robert Walsh

“This marks yet another attempt by Putin to suppress Zelensky’s legitimacy and work to broker a more favorable deal with only the ‘adults at the table.’ Trump will not oppose Zelensky attending, but Putin likely will, and Trump won’t press – so expect no Zelensky. I think Putin will try to retain current gains, including Crimea, and will ask Trump for a hard commitment on no NATO inclusion for Ukraine – ever. I expect Putin to reiterate the Russian position that Ukraine is historically Russian and belongs to Russia. The symbolism of meeting in Alaska (a former Russian territory until the Alaska Purchase of 1867) should not be lost on anyone. Russia has been unequivocal in their outlandish pre-conditions to consider a ceasefire agreement. I would expect Putin to retract a bit from the former Russian pre-conditions, but still suggest that terms offered by the West are unacceptable. Importantly, a bilateral meeting only legitimizes Russia’s position and likely does little to advance the Ukrainian cause. I would be surprised if anything substantive comes from this meeting.” – General John Evans

“Putin will no doubt look to shore up the relationship with Trump as he likely now appreciates the damage to the relationship. The challenge is how does Putin reestablish a positive relationship while sustaining his maximalist position? Anything short of a ceasefire will be seen by Trump as a failure. I doubt Zelensky gets an invitation, but the possibility is not zero. Depending on the outcome and negotiated positions there could be a follow-on meeting with Zelensky. For now, the more parties attending a negotiation, the greater the complexity. Nevertheless, Ukraine gets a vote irrespective of the outcome by their actions on the ground along the line of contact. Zelensky would be committing political suicide to cede any territory, and how much pressure Trump will bring on Zelensky to freeze forces in place is unknown. Given that the various parties do not appear to have established a viable framework in advance of this meeting, the likelihood of a grand bargain between Putin and Trump is low. Should Putin agree to a ceasefire, it would only be to seek economic relief and indicate that his concern over the economy may be growing. There are pressures on Russia’s economy that may become more acute over the next 18 months. I think what we may see is that this is all for show and the only agreement is to hold another meeting in the near-term.” – General Robert Ashley

“I am hesitant to comment fully before having clarity on whether Ukrainian President Zelensky is also attending. A summit without him at best could set the stage for future negotiations, or at worst could create a dynamic that sets Zelensky up to be the recalcitrant party to an untenable deal. It is important to remember this is not a real estate swap. For Kyiv, this is not about today, it is about tomorrow. Russia needs to recognize Ukrainian nationality. The Ukrainian people will be hard-pressed to believe in security assurances offered by the West as part of any deal, given the failure of the West to honor previous guarantees surrounding the agreement to abandon their nuclear weapons. There is also the highly emotional issue of the Ukrainian children Russia has forcibly transferred. Their return is paramount to Ukraine believing that a negotiated settlement isn’t just a pause for Russia to reload and start again.” – Linda Weissgold, former CIA Deputy Director for Analysis

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