What has Happened:

• Today it was announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea and meet with its leader Kim Jong-un during an official state visit beginning on Tuesday.
• This visit, which will be Putin’s first to North Korea in 24 years, is a follow-up to the September 2023 trip when Kim travelled to Russia to meet with Putin.
• There is growing international concern about the relationship between the two leaders that has resulted in an arms arrangement where Kim provides much needed munitions to Russia for use in its war with Ukraine in exchange for economic assistance and the transfer of sensitive technology that could help improve Kim’s nuclear, missile, and satellite capabilities.
• The engagement benefits both nations as North Korea seeks to strengthen its partnership with Russia to support its heavily sanctioned economy, and Russia desperately needs to increase the supply of weapons it receives from North Korea.
• North Korea also benefits from seeing its weapons used in Ukraine as it allows them to collect critical data as to how its systems perform against Western technology.
• With the rejection of Putin’s latest peace conditions, that included a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four annexed regions and a demand that Ukraine not join NATO, the war will continue for the foreseeable future.

Why it Matters:

“Putin is traveling to North Korea seeking arms since Ukraine is quickly closing the weapons gap with the arrival of the recently approved U.S. and European arms. Russia has a weapons advantage over Ukraine because of the slow delivery of U.S. and European weapons. Putin’s advantage led to some gains on the battlefield, and he sees the need to return to North Korea to bolster his supply of weapons with a formal agreement. The visit is Putin’s first to North Korea in 24 years and follows last fall’s meeting in Vladivostok where Putin was able to broker badly needed arms from Kim Jong-un for his war in Ukraine. There are also discussions of the potential for Russia and North Korea to go beyond what they have achieved so far and form a military alliance. It would follow a previous Cold War alliance that ended with the fall of the Soviet Union. The initiative is in line with Russia’s and China’s objective to align with other autocratic governments to diminish the U.S.-led international order. North Korea could receive badly needed cash, food aid, advanced technology, satellite support, low-cost energy, and potential nuclear support that is limited by U.S. sanctions. The U.S, Japan, and South Korea are concerned about North Korea’s weapons systems being tested in Ukraine against their similar systems. The deal also helps North Korea depend less on China for support. This comes after last week’s agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine for a 10-year bilateral security commitment that is non-binding for future U.S. administrations. It is similar to agreements signed with other NATO countries.” – General Robert Walsh

DISCLAIMER