What has Happened:

• Earlier today, it was reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during an operation in Gaza.
• Sinwar has been the leader of Hamas operations in Gaza since 2017, and he is believed to be the key architect of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
• Sinwar, who has not been seen publicly for over a year, has also been the political leader of Hamas after Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in July.
• With negotiations for a hostage release and a Gaza ceasefire deal effectively on hold for almost a month (following the killing of Nasrallah and the significant Israeli operations against Hezbollah), the hope is that this latest development brings both sides back to the table, but that remains to be seen.
• Sinwar could be succeeded by his deputy in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, who has represented Hamas in ceasefire negotiations with Israel, or by former Hamas leader, Khaled Meshaal, but the leadership structure going forward is not entirely clear.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said today that there were “no signs of harm to the hostages in the encounter in question.”
• Meanwhile, last evening, the U.S. carried out airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen with B-2 stealth bombers, hitting five underground weapons storage facilities.

Why it Matters:

“The Israeli Foreign Minister’s announcement of Yahya Sinwar’s death shortly after the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah is another victory that demonstrates the superior intelligence and striking capabilities that the IDF is using to keep pressure on Iran as it slowly diminishes the military capabilities of its proxy forces. His death is retribution for the October 7th attacks that he was responsible for, and sends a message to Iran’s leaders that they could be next. Iran is back on its heels and is becoming more isolated, with much of Hamas’ military capabilities destroyed (along with its leader) and estimates that half of Hezbollah’s missiles and rockets have been destroyed (along with most of its leadership as well). This is a clear turning point in the military operations in Gaza, as Israel is getting closer to reaching its objective of eliminating Hamas’ military and governance capabilities. Hamas will replace Sinwar, but the momentum is certainly on the IDF’s side in its military campaign to devastate both Hamas and Hezbollah.” – General Robert Walsh

“Irrespective of the impact that the IDF has had on Hamas leadership to date, they do have redundancy built into the organization vertically and horizontally. Any impact may be short-lived, and it is unlikely that the loss of Sinwar drives Hamas toward a ceasefire.” – General Robert Ashley

“Too early to tell what the Israeli or Hamas reaction will be. Clearly, killing Sinwar was a must to meet the end state, but I suspect that there is more to be done.” – General Frank Kearney

“Perhaps a comparison to the death of Sinwar would be the deaths of Bin Laden, Zarqawi (Iraq 2006), Zawahiri, and Soleimani. Since we had largely isolated Bin Laden and Zawahiri, their effectiveness had waned by the time of their deaths, and we do not spend as much time now worried about Al Qaeda. The death of Zarqawi, and the exploitation of the information on site, led to the tactical and operational degradation of Al Qaeda in Iraq in the Spring of 2006, which created an opening that aided the Sunni Awakening later that year. Since Soleimani had a successor chain-of-command in place, his death did not spell the end of IRGC activities. Consider that Soleimani’s death was more like the passing of a founding entrepreneur. The founder is generally replaced by a less agile, less creative committee. While still very dangerous, the IRGC is less so without Soleimani. With Hamas under sustained assault, hiding primarily underground, and cut off from most resupply, the death of Sinwar will no doubt be a blow to Hamas morale, but may not sway any sort of ceasefire deal-making. Finally, it is critical to remember that while organizations can be disrupted, degraded, or destroyed, ideas linger. The organization of Hamas is already disrupted and degraded, and may ultimately be destroyed, but the mentality will most likely linger and re-emerge dangerously at some future point.” – General Rick Waddell

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