What has Happened:

• This afternoon, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was attacked “by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles originating from Iran,” according to a U.S. defense official.
• It was also reported that Iran launched missiles at a U.S. military base in Iraq.
• The number of missiles that Iran used to attack the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was the same as the number of bombs the U.S. used to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, according to the secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
• Qatar’s Defense Ministry said its air defense systems had successfully intercepted the missile attack on Al-Udeid, and that there were no reported deaths or injuries.
• It would be a strategy similar to the response to the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, where Iran needed to symbolically respond without escalating the conflict beyond what it could handle.
• The Trump administration was anticipating that Iran would retaliate after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
• Iranian officials gave Qatar advance notice of an attack before launching missiles toward the base.

Why it Matters:

“This strikes me as the ‘Enemy’s Most Likely Course of Action.’ Iran had as many as 2,000 close range or short-range ballistic missiles that could put most of our Gulf bases at risk. As Qatar was ‘friendly’ with Iran, like Oman, this could be a low-risk attack since the Emir of Qatar is not likely to join a kinetic response to the attack as long as U.S. assets are the target. The Emir had ordered Qatari airspace closed ahead of the attack, which likely means he had some sort of advance warning. When we killed Soleimani, the Iranian response was two missiles into the Erbil airport and eleven into Al-Assad Air Base, both with sufficient warning, and our personnel were in bunkers. President Trump’s clearly stated redline is no U.S. personnel killed. So, we await the battle damage assessment.” – General Rick Waddell

“My sources tell me that CENTCOM was well prepared for this attack on Al Udeid and a possible attack on 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain. It seems, based on reporting, that all missiles were intercepted by air defense and there were no casualties (that we know of). Iran had two options: 1) relinquish their desire to further develop nuclear options, or 2) strike back against the United States. A combination of national pride, indignation, and a very real need to demonstrate to their people that they would not roll over for the U.S. has led to choosing option 2. CENTCOM has an entire menu of options to present to the National Command Authority. The escalation chess match is afoot. It’s President Trump’s move.” – General John Evans

“My view is that this was coordinated and telegraphed with little chance of casualties to prevent U.S. escalation. I could be wrong, so we will have to wait and see what the rest of the evening brings. Contrary to the news, we have the Inherent Resolve mission and a Brigade from the 10th Mountain Division throughout Syria and Iraq. They are potential militia targets, and these militia may act outside of Iran’s guidance.” – General Frank Kearney

“To General Kearney’s point about militias acting independently without guidance from IRGC, that is the scenario we should watch for next. If, and it’s a stretch at this point, the regime’s leadership is increasingly viewed as inept and unable to provide for the safety of the population, control by the IRGC atrophies. Lawlessness follows. Militias still have capacity to do damage and we should expect it. The last thing regional neighbors want is for this to spin out of control. So far, Iran’s response helps prevent that; it’s tepid but a necessary first step intended to message internally.” – General Spider Marks

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