What has Happened:

• This afternoon, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel, beginning its retaliatory campaign after waves of Israeli strikes devastated Iran’s military chain of command and hit critical nuclear facilities.
• At least seven sites in Tel Aviv and its surrounding areas were hit in the Iranian missile attack (with damage reports/injuries TBD, though expected to be limited so far).
• Iran fired 100 drones at Israel earlier today, which were shot down in transit.
• Two U.S. destroyers are in the region and intercepting inbound Iranian missiles and the U.S. Navy has directed the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner to sail to the eastern Mediterranean to assist in the air defense operations.
• Israel said it had struck Iranian nuclear sites in Isfahan and Natanz, along with many other targets, while Iranian news agencies reported that two explosions were heard near the Fordow nuclear enrichment site.
• Israeli Defense Minister Katz said that Iran had “crossed a red line” by firing missiles at populated civilian areas in Israel.
• The expectation is that Israel will escalate further in its next wave of attacks against Iran.

Why it Matters:

“The Israeli strikes were amazingly successful at decapitation and hitting leadership and air defense. Not mentioned in the news was the attack on Parchin where since 2004 the Iranians have been testing implosion mechanisms and built a containment chamber to do so. This is critical to making a warhead and firing system that compresses the uranium to achieve critical mass and excite the reaction. Israel’s intelligence on all facets of the nuclear program has been demonstrated. However, the deep underground facility at Fordow and the site at Isfahan must be further degraded as well. Fordow requires a special munition developed by the U.S. and can only be carried by the B-2 which carries two. Watch for B-2 deployments to determine potential U.S. involvement in the future. A possible response if U.S. assets are attacked. Also to really damage intellectual support the Israelis need to attack the University in Tehran where the military program was moved to use the civilian program as a cover. So clearly there is a lot more to do. Destroying Fordow is a challenge but it must be attacked and further degraded at the minimum.” – General Frank Kearney

 “This is neither unexpected nor surprising. Israeli leadership will have asked people to move away from vulnerable sites and move into hardened areas. Unless there are unexpected Iranian intelligence resources inside of Israel right now, Iran’s strikes are likely not going to hit critical Israeli targets. Only hardened structures will be at risk and can be easily targeted. Most capabilities and personnel from these sites have either been evacuated or moved to redundant continuity of operations (COOP) sites. Israel will respond in accordance with their selected timeline. They won’t feel rushed. They will assess damage, check for new intelligence, and conduct another round of precision strikes (I assess within the next 24-48 hours). This is only the beginning. Iran choosing to strike civilian targets, such as Tel Aviv, instead of constraining their strikes to pure military targets marks a significant escalation. As Israel chooses to respond, one of the possible collateral effects could be damage to Tehran‘s oil, refining, and transport capability. Since China imports 90% of Iran’s oil, we might see China taking a more active role in calling for calm from Iran. It would be helpful to all if they were to enter the discussion quietly to convince Iranian leaders that de-escalation is their best option.” – General John Evans

 “Iran’s escalatory path is likely to include both conventional approaches, like these missile barrages, as well as asymmetric warfare. There is a high risk of U.S. casualties. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens live in Israel. And, Iran has previously shown a willingness to attack targets throughout the region with little regard for whether U.S. military personnel are at risk. Iran will assume U.S. involvement in the attacks yesterday, and reports of U.S. assistance in Israel’s defense today will cement this view.” – Linda Weissgold, former CIA Deputy Director for Analysis

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