What has Happened:

• Earlier this morning, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and his Iranian bodyguard were killed in an Israeli strike on his house in Tehran.
• Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar, had been visiting Iran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian that was held yesterday.
• Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei has vowed revenge against Israel over the killing, as did the IRGC in a statement released today.
• This operation (which is not the first time Israel has targeted its enemies in Iran) came on the heels of the IDF airstrike yesterday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, in retaliation for the rocket attack that killed 12 children and teenagers in the Golan Heights last Saturday.
• Of note, Shukr was also wanted by the FBI for his involvement in the bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983, which killed 241 U.S. service members.
• These two targeted killings against Hezbollah and Hamas significantly escalate tensions in the region to levels that were last seen in April, when Israel and Iran exchanged strikes.
• Secretary Blinken, in addition to saying that the U.S had no knowledge of the attack, made a point of highlighting that the U.S. is still intent on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, but the status of those discussions is unclear following the killing of Haniyeh as he was highly involved as a negotiator for Hamas.

Why it Matters:

“Cleary a significant embarrassment for the Iranian regime as the details emerge on the nature of the strike. Haniyeh was a guest of the government and had left Qatar to attend the Iranian Presidential inauguration. Regarding the strike itself, we’re still waiting to see if this was an aircraft that penetrated Iranian airspace or a team on the ground that reached Haniyeh in what is being reported as an IRGC-affiliated compound. Regardless, this speaks to the incredible capabilities of the Israeli military and their intelligence networks. It would appear that Israel sees a strike against a Hamas leader in Qatar or another Arab nation as a redline as it relates to broader diplomatic initiatives in the region. This is not new in that there have been a number of assassination strikes against key Iranian nuclear scientists attributed to Israel over the past two decades (albeit those did not result in significant Iranian counterstrikes). The Iranians have several options across their arsenal of proxies: the Houthis, multiple Shia militia groups in Iraq, Lebanese Hezbollah, or it could once again conduct a limited missile strike into Israel as we observed in April following the strike against IRGC leadership in Syria. There is increased risk to U.S. forces in the region (Iraq and Syria specifically). The Iranian senior leadership team is weighing its options, so the timing of a counterstrike is not necessarily imminent and will happen based on Iranian timelines. I would also expect the peace talks to break down in the near-term. I would expect Israel to continue operations in Gaza as they exploit the potential for increased communications between Hamas leaders in Gaza in reaction to Haniyeh’s death.” – General Robert Ashley

“Israel’s targeting of key leaders in the capital cities of Beirut and Tehran cannot go without a significant response. Iranian state radio has said that peace talks will be delayed and to expect strikes from proxies. I believe major Israeli cities may be targets for retaliation. Simple rocket attacks will probably not suffice. The U.S. Secretary of Defense has stated that the U.S. will stand with Israel if attacked, reinforcing the hope of keeping escalation limited to proxies. Expect a significant response.” – General Frank Kearney

“As a key interlocutor for Hamas, Haniyeh was on a short list. He was likely close enough to Hamas’ top leadership to warrant a slot on the Israeli target list, even with his ‘interlocutor’ role. The sequential continued destruction of Hamas leadership seems to be having the effect of forcing them to the table. It is reflective of the deteriorating status quo for Hamas. After Sunday’s attack in northern Israel by Iranian-funded Hezbollah, Israel likely felt that it could not take this blow without a response. Both Iran and Israel now hint at tit-for-tat expansion of the conflict in Lebanon. Perhaps the death of Haniyeh in Iran may be a precise ‘de-escalation’ message from Israel to Iran. Israel has again demonstrated the ability to attack with precision deep into the Iranian state, perhaps as a way to deter expansion of the conflict. The tragedy of civilian deaths in Israel, Lebanon, the Red Sea, and Gaza are counterposed against an Iranian state that has paid very little for its troublemaking.” – General Michael Groen

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