What has Happened:

• This afternoon, for the first time, President Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles for strikes inside of Russia.
• The weapons will likely be used against Russian and North Korean troops around Kursk as these forces prepare a massive counterattack against Ukrainian forces in the region.
• Allowing the Ukrainians to finally use the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) inside of Russia was likely in response to Russia’s decision to bring thousands of North Korean troops into the conflict and to demonstrate that these troops are vulnerable to attack.
• Back in May, the U.S. first authorized Ukraine to use the HIMARS rocket system against Russian targets close to the border in order to help defend against Russian attacks on Kharkiv.
• Initially, there was concern that allowing Ukraine to use these longer-range systems would escalate the conflict to a point where Putin could retaliate against Western coalition partners.
• Possible Russian actions that could result from this decision include stepped-up acts of arson and sabotage against facilities in Europe.
• Meanwhile, earlier today, Russia launched one of the largest missile-and-drone attacks of the war to-date on cities across Ukraine, knocking out power and water in parts of three regions.

Why it Matters:

“President Biden’s decision to allow for the use of ATACMS against targets in Russia has been a long time coming. They have been needed to hit targets in Russia that were firing on Ukraine or providing logistical support. The introduction of North Korean troops to the Kursk region to be used against Ukrainian forces drove Biden’s decision. The Ukrainians are slowly losing both battlefield positions and leverage in any future peace negotiations that Biden knows the new Trump administration could push for. The ATACMS are needed to help defend the dug-in Ukrainian troops against the Russian forces aided by the new North Korean troops that are massing to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region. It is becoming evident that the war is slowly moving away from a Ukrainian victory and the side that has the momentum going into the peace negotiations will have an advantage. The approval to use the ATACMS also sends a message to North Korea that their forces will suffer even more from Kim’s decision to have North Korea enter the fray.” – General Robert Walsh

“In advance of both the winter and the change in U.S. administration, Russia is likely preparing to put pressure on the Kursk region and against Ukrainian infrastructure more broadly. The Biden decision is likely driven by the facts on the ground (observing the movement of Russian and DPRK troops) and intelligence reporting, but also to give Ukraine a better position for potential negotiations in advance of Trump’s inauguration. This will allow Ukraine greater capacity to strike formations, logistics, and infrastructure, but it is not decisive. I would expect Russia to again bring up the threat of tactical nuclear weapons (still a fallow threat) along with increased cyber, sabotage, and information operations against Western Europe.” – General Robert Ashley

“Yes, long overdue. Good fix. Looking forward, Ukraine’s targeting process must not include U.S. permission on target selection or delivery. This now is an opportunity for Zelensky to improve Ukraine’s position in advance of a likely effort by a new U.S. administration to facilitate some form of an agreed to and monitored ceasefire.” – General Spider Marks

“Smart move to let them go deep now. Unlikely that Putin will overreact with Trump about to become the POTUS.” – General Frank Kearney

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