Macro Strategy Insights

Thoughts on Revisions and What it Means for YTD Numbers

We just had downward revisions of 911k to the jobs data from Q2 2024 to Q1 2025. My understanding is a large portion (even the biggest contributor) to the revisions came from the overstatement of the birth/death model. That is the model that uses EIN applications and other inputs to attempt to estimate how many jobs were created by new business formation (birth) and how many jobs were lost by businesses that closed (death). Over time, with additional data (primarily state unemployment information), they can better analyze what actually happened and “true up” the data to reflect information that has ... Thoughts on Revisions and What it Means for YTD Numbers

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