What has Happened:

• Last evening, a Ukrainian drone attack destroyed dozens of bombers deep inside of Russia’s territory, a day before the two sides met for a new round of direct talks in Istanbul.
• Ukraine said that 117 drones were used in the attacks, known as Operation Spider’s Web, and that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged.
• The operation saw drones transported in containers carried by trucks deep into Russian territory and the drones hit airfields (including the Belaya air base in Russia’s Irkutsk region), more than 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) from Ukraine.
• A sizable portion of the fleet Russia uses to launch guided-missile attacks into Ukraine (and would use to conduct strikes in the event of a nuclear war) was damaged or destroyed in the coordinated attacks.
• In addition, the A-50, an early warning and control aircraft, was hit in the strikes, and since Russia only has a few of these planes, any loss could certainly hurt Russia’s capabilities.
• Russia will now need to devote more resources to protecting its bombers, and while the country has a vast air-defense system that it has expanded in recent years, it lacks sufficient equipment to cover the entire country.

Why it Matters:

“A bold move by Ukraine, and not surprising given the lack of progress regarding recent ceasefire discussions. Ukraine is clearly ready to raise the threat to the Russian homeland, and I would expect a strong response from Moscow with no sign of stepping back from Russia’s current pace of strikes. While the depletion of the Air Force fleet is noteworthy, the real message here is to the Russian people that Putin cannot protect them and this is an unjust war. Another key point is that the Ukrainians, unlike the Russians, are abiding by the laws of armed conflict and not striking civilian targets. The strike also demonstrates the importance of intelligence in general (including human intelligence tradecraft) and the porous nature of the borders of large landmasses/complex urban environments. While we talk about ubiquitous technical surveillance seeing everything – well maybe it doesn’t. I’d look for a punitive attack from Russia against more civilian targets in the near-term.” – General Robert Ashley

“This is a significant achievement by Ukraine. To be able to strike 3,000 miles from the Ukrainian border deep into Russia sends a very clear signal about how effective their deep strike cell has become. In addition, the fact that they are now striking strategic assets signals both an escalation and an increased risk for miscalculation. Heretofore, Ukraine has not significantly challenged or attacked capability tied to Russia’s nuclear triad. That changed last night as they took out Bear and Backfire bombers. The U.S. needs to monitor this closely so that there is not a significant strategic miscalculation or unintended strategic escalation.” – General John Evans

“Kyiv’s bold use of drones is a reminder that countries need to broaden their apertures continuously on possible threats. We all know the dangers that come from a ‘lack of imagination.’ I do believe, however, that those who are equating this to revolutionary warfare may be underestimating how quickly countermeasures can be put in place. Last week, Israel’s Ministry of Defense announced that it has already successfully used a high-powered laser to intercept enemy drones.” – Linda Weissgold, former CIA Deputy Director for Analysis

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