Macro Strategy Insights

The Start of a “New” Cycle

The Fed finally cut rates on Wednesday and 2-year yields finished the week higher, 10s didn’t have the decency to rally on Fed day, and according to the Bloomberg WIRP function, the market is pricing in 2.92% by the end of the September 2025 meeting (instead of the 2.84% it had on Monday). So, while the cycle is “new” in terms of actually cutting, with a “surprise” 50 bps, it is difficult to argue that the bond market hasn’t already been pricing this in, perhaps too aggressively! Stocks were more interesting, as they rallied, faded, rallied, and then faded on ... The Start of a “New” Cycle

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