Today we have an instant(ish) reaction, rather than an instant reaction, as I was on Yahoo Finance breaking down the data live and then had some technical difficulties. When looking at the “preponderance” of evidence on the jobs data (JOLTS, ADP, and NFP), I cannot see how the Fed goes 50 bps in September, without a reasonably aggressive change in stance. The unemployment rate at 4.2% is important. The Sahm Rule, with some arguing whether or not it was triggered last month, is definitively not triggered here as the unemployment rate dipped, and the lowest 3-month average in the past ... NFP Instant(ish) Reaction – 25 bps in September